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15./16. Oktober 2014 in Koblenz

Colloquium “Seasonal Forecasting – current challenges and potential benefits for decision making in the water sector”

Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts could be a valuable tool for the medium-term to long-term planning of many users of the water sector. This holds for the optimization of hydropower generation, water-related logistics as well as for irrigation management and others. The knowledge about the possible future evolution of streamflow within the next months would be important additional information in related decision processes. Although there is a strong need for seasonal forecast products, there are only a few seasonal hydrological forecasting systems operational yet. One of the main reasons is that the long-term meteorological predictability, especially for precipitation, is quite limited.

The aim of the scientific colloquium is the demonstration of the current state of the art in seasonal forecasting. This will serve as a basis for developing guidelines for operational applications within the framework of the Commission for Hydrology of WMO. Presenters of scientific organisations, water authorities, national hydrological and meteorological services as well as operational water management bodies will give an overview about the current skills and developments of meteorological seasonal forecasts, statistical methods in pre- and post-processing and applications in hydrology.

The colloquium addresses the scientific community, representatives of water authorities, as well as national hydrological and meteorological services, potential users in the water sector, and consulting engineers.

Organizer: Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)

Co-Organizers: World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IHP/HWRP Secretariat

Contact: Dr. Bastian Klein (klein@bafg.de), Dennis Meißner (meissner@bafg.de), Dr. Johannes Cullmann (demuth@bafg.de)

Presentations as pdf-download
Wednesday, 15 October, 2014
09:00Opening
Michael Behrendt, Johannes Cullmann, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Germany
09:15Climate Prediction for Climate Services: the SPECS Project
Francisco Doblas-Reyes, IC3 Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (E)
09:45Applications of Seasonal Predictions: Limits of Predictability for Droughts, Fire and Malaria
Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EU)
10:15Hydrological Seasonal Prediction in France: from Prediction to Climate Service
Jean-Pierre Céron, Météeo France (F)
11:15Assessing the Potential Skill of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Central Europe
Imke Lingemann, Federal Institute of Hydrology (DE)
11:45Monthly Flow Forecasting in the Czech Republic
Jan Danhelka, CHMI Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CZ)
12:15Operational Long-Term Forecasts of River's and Water Reservoir's Phenomena in Russia
Yuri Simonov, Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia (RU)
12:45Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasts for the Hydropower Industry – a Swedish Approach
Kean Foster, SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE)
14:15Building an Operational National Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Service for Australia: Progress-to-Date and Future Plans
Narendra Tuteja, Bureau of Meteorology (AU)
14:45Regional Streamflow Seasonal Forecasting in West-Africa: Achievement and Prospects
Abdou Ali, AGRHYMET (NE)
15:15Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting and Use for Water Management in the United States: Current Practice and Future Potential
Andy Wood, National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
15.45Climate Forecasts and its Use for Reservoir Inflow Forecasts in Annual Water Allocation: Challenges & Opportunities
Eduardo Sávio Martins, FUNCEME (BR)
16:15Status of the German seasonal prediction system
Kristina Fröhlich, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Thursday, 16 October, 2014
08:30The Role of the Users in Developing Climate Services: the Case of EUPORIAS
Carlo Buontempo, UK Met Office (GB)
09:00Linking Seasonal Climate Forecast with Hydrological Forecast in Western South America
Juan José Nieto, CIIFEN (EC)
09:30Tailoring Seasonal Forecasts for Water Resources Management: Challenges and Opportunities
Paul Block, University of Wisconsin - Madison (US)
10:45Monthly to Seasonal Forecasts of River Flow for Hydropower Applications
Laurent Dubus, EDF Électricité de France (F)
11:15www.drought.ch: Integrating Observations and Extended-Range Ensemble Predictions for Early Recognition of Droughts in Switzerland
Konrad Bogner, WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
11:45Impact of Forcing and Initial Conditions on Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting: Some Examples
Albrecht Weerts, Deltares (NL)
12:30Summary and closing remarks

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